World Class: Chrome leads the field in race for Kentucky Derby

THE Kentucky Derby moved to a points-based entry system last year and it just so happened that the horse with the most points going into the Derby won the Derby. If only it were always that simple.

Of course a vague relationship will always exists between points and performance, since they are both products of a horse's ability and running well in a major trial is normally a good indicator to running well in the big one.

California Chrome: has been impressing in his recent runs
PICTURE: Benoit Photo

But you don't have to go back many years to find a couple of Derby winners who would not have had made the final cut under the new system.

Mine That Bird would have earned just 15 points before losing out on his place at Churchill Downs, while subsequent Derby, Preakness and Haskell hero War Emblem would have clocked up zero points under the new system, as the Illinois Derby (which he won) was bumped from the points list.

The fact is no single-variable entry calculator can ever cover all the bases. And no doubt some horses who go on to win the Derby under this system would not have had the chance to run under the old prize-money based rules. That's just how it goes.

What each system tries to do is shortlist the horses with the best chance of winning. The new rules are an improvement in this respect because they prioritise a horse's latest form by giving more points to the later trials.

At this stage in a three-year-old's development his latest form is the most reliable guide to how he will run in the Derby. Indeed, only two Derbywinners since 1995 had failed to win or finish an excusable second on their latest start.

There are problems with points, like fillies races not counting for inclusion in the Derby and a self-fulfilling prophecy meaning the key trials will now always turn up the most winners by dint of their points allocation.

But if you want to know where to look for the winner the system makes it clear crystal clear: look no further than the big seven 100-point races.

The seven premier trials carry double the points of the next most important trials and ten-times that of the big two-year-old races. These races are the final round of Derby trials and have produced 18 of the last 21 winners.

With the backing of the points system these seven races should continue to at the very least provide the vast majority of Derby winners, at best they might just completely dominate the race.

By Saturday five of the seven 100-pointers had been run. The Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes will be covered next week, but here's the story so far.

FLORIDA DERBY
Six of the last 20 winners of the Kentucky Derby prepped here, including Orb last year. Orb looked outstanding last year and was indeed tipped for Derby success in the corresponding World Class column last year.

There didn't appear to be an Orb, Big Brown or Barbaro this year, however. The time was pretty good (Beyer 99) and there was some depth to the field, but there was simply no outstanding runner.

Watch the video and try to pick the best horse in the race. It's not easy. The first four basically finished in an order determined by their racing position and the distance they each covered.

The runner-up made most of the running on the rail, the winner was always on the rail and crept up the inside as the second drifted to score by a neck. The third and fourth raced further back and wider, they didn't lose much ground in the straight and weren't beaten far.

Once you put an extra furlong into the mix any one of the four could end up on top. This is reflected in their ratings, with first and second, Constitution and Wildcat Red, posting RPRs of 117 in the race, while General A Rod and Cairo Prince already had RPRs of 117 from their previous starts.

So that was the Florida Derby, four solid Derby hopefuls but none of them stood out.

UAE DERBY
The inclusion of the UAE Derby on the list of 100-point Derby trials may be more to do with international inclusion than the strong record of the race as a trial in the Run for the Roses.

The highest finish achieved by a UAE Derby starter in the Kentucky Derby was when Master Of Hounds finished fifth in 2011 and Toast Of New York (115) is unlikely to build on that record.

LOUISIANA DERBY
Grindstone was the only Derby winner in the last two decades to have graduated from the Louisiana, which he won in 1996.

This year's winner Vicar's In Trouble rates up with the Florida Derby crowd on an RPR of 117 after making all the running to win by and eased down three-and-a-half lengths. He's in the mix.

WOOD MEMORIAL
Four of the last 20 Derby winners prepped in the Wood, although none since 2003.

Wicked Strong put up a good staying performance to gun down and power away from the favourite Samraat, winning by three-and-a-half lengths.

Despite finishing third in the Grade 2 Remsen as a juvenile, his previous form didn't really entitle him to score in this manner, but he's clearly going the right way at the right time which makes him something of a wildcard for next month.

Stamina is always an issue as horses step up to 1m2f for the first time in the Derby but the way Wicked Strong stormed up the Aqueduct straight suggests he could be one of those who gets the distance.

With an RPR of 120 he sits second in the current Derby standings.

SANTA ANITA DERBY
Five of the last 20 Derby winners prepped in the Santa Anita Derby.

California Chrome was sent off favourite on Saturday after posting wide-margin wins on his three previous starts, form which already saw him leading the crop with an RPR of 121.

On Saturday he did even better, earning an RPR of 124+ for his effortless victory over Grade 2 winners Hoppertunity and Candy Boy, making him King of California.

There are two more major trials to come but California Chrome is the clear Derby pick at present, having won his trials by big margins, in fast times and with clockwork regularity.

He has the best two pieces of form in the book so far and, while he still has to prove he can handle the extra furlong, which is never a given, you're taking the same risk with most of line-up and this one is much the best of them over 1m1f.

It's been a while since we had such an outstanding three-year-old lining up for the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown was the last in 2008. He won the Florida Derby by five lengths before winning the Derby and the Preakness Stakes.

Those are some big brown shoes to fill but California Chrome might just be the horse to do it. Of course, until he serves up one of his authoritative victories in one or more of the Classics his season is nothing more than a promise. But there is an awful lot of promise in this one.

Just as with Orb last year, California Chrome has the most Kentucky Derby qualifying points for the 2014 renewal (150). Could points mean Roses again?

Over in Japan, Arc fourth Kizuna (122) made a bright start to the new campaign by landing the Osaka Hai.

He seemed to have a mountain to climb turning into the straight, but the ever-patient Yutaka Take delivered him in plenty of time to score with something to spare.

The leading middle-distance three-year-old in Japan last year, Kizuna could bump into Just A Way later in the season.

He would have to improve a lot to match that world-leading rival, but a small degree of improvement isn't out of the question for the smart four-year-old when things fall right.

TOP OF THE CLASS: California Chrome 124 Art Sherman (US) (Santa Anita Derby, Santa Anita, 1m1f, 5 April)

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